This is one of the most alarming reports I’ve read for a long time.
For those who don’t want to read the whole thing, it claims the Saudi security team just destroyed a terrorist cell 178 men strong which was preparing to target their oil infrastructure with heavy weapons and planes.
This sort of thing has been going on for some time now, but the sheer scale of this latest bust is terrifying. Previous attacks on key pieces of Saudi infrastructure (and by extension, our own), like the Abqaiq stabilisation facility, have been relatively small and amateur affairs. The last one was stopped when the Aramco private army guarding Abqaiq opened fire on a van as it slammed through the compunds outer gates. The vehicle, laden with explosives, detonated before it reached the heart of the facility.
These giant industrial complexes in the desert process significant amounts of the worlds daily oil supply … Saudi Arabia alone provides 6% or more. According to Wikipedia the loss of Abqaiq would reduce Saudi production from 6.8mbpd to only 1. This may not sound like much, but given the extremely tight supply/demand balance we are currently in, the disruption of 6% of our supply would trigger a 1970s style oil shock overnight (think about it … losing 5% of supply means one person in 20 doesn’t get any oil).
Unfortunately, there is a clear trend with these attacks – they are getting much, much more sophisticated. Large numbers of so-called “insurgents” are returning from Iraq having gained experience of targeting oil infrastructure like pipelines (easy to blow up but easy to repair) and more juicy targets like refineries (hard to attack, almost impossible to repair). They now seem to be plotting to destroy the Saudi oil infrastructure, achieving both their political goals in the Kingdom and also throwing the West into chaos.
If you aren’t reading this note from a cave in the jungle, this is something you should worry about a lot. Many people don’t seem to realise how close to the edge our oil supply is right now – whether this is a temporary phase like in the late nineties or (more likely) the onset of peak oil, doesn’t really matter. The point is the situation is fragile, and for the attackers to win, they need only succeed once. For us to win, we need to succeed every time.
Crashing airplanes into buildings got them into the news but – other than losing some civil liberties – didn’t hurt us much. They seem to have realised that, and are now going for the jugular. Get ready.
